◈ DraftDojo

Early-Game Win Calculator

How much does the 15-minute state actually swing a game? Enter your gold difference, void grubs, and elemental drakes at 15:00 to get a win probability — anchored to the real base rate from comparable pro games, with what each edge is worth and how accurate the model is on held-out games. Rebuilt on our own data since Oracle's Elixir stopped updating theirs after 2025.

Infernal
Mountain
Ocean
Cloud
Chemtech
Hextech
50%
Model win probability

Early-game dominance leaderboard

Which comp styles and champions post the biggest leads by 15:00, across 2,405 pro games. Ranked by average gold difference at 15:00 — the standard early-dominance measure (it captures kills, CS, plates, and objectives, not just kills).

Best comp styles for early dominance

Average 15:00 gold lead of each of the five comp archetypes.

  • Siege+499g · 94 games

    poke and objective pressure — grind a lead through chip

  • Catch+144g · 1102 games

    pick threat — burst a target before the game settles

  • Attack−51g · 3403 games

    hard engage — get on top of you and open the fight early

  • Split−124g · 45 games

    side-lane pressure — apply the map before teamfights

  • Protect−168g · 166 games

    scaling backline — usually trades tempo now for later

Champions that snowball earliest

Highest average 15:00 gold lead among champions picked ≥20 times.