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Early-Game Win Calculator
How much does the 15-minute state actually swing a game? Enter your gold difference, void grubs, and elemental drakes at 15:00 to get a win probability — anchored to the real base rate from comparable pro games, with what each edge is worth and how accurate the model is on held-out games. Rebuilt on our own data since Oracle's Elixir stopped updating theirs after 2025.
Infernal
Mountain
Ocean
Cloud
Chemtech
Hextech
50%
Model win probability
Early-game dominance leaderboard
Which comp styles and champions post the biggest leads by 15:00, across 3,041 pro games. Ranked by average gold difference at 15:00 — the standard early-dominance measure (it captures kills, CS, plates, and objectives, not just kills).
Best comp styles for early dominance
Average 15:00 gold lead of each of the five comp archetypes.
- Split+386g · 57 games
side-lane pressure — apply the map before teamfights
- Siege+301g · 114 games
poke and objective pressure — grind a lead through chip
- Catch+179g · 1446 games
pick threat — burst a target before the game settles
- Attack−63g · 4235 games
hard engage — get on top of you and open the fight early
- Protect−215g · 230 games
scaling backline — usually trades tempo now for later
Champions that snowball earliest
Highest average 15:00 gold lead among champions picked ≥20 times.
